The National Football League has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to step into the fight over whether states can regulate sports contracts sold by prediction markets such as Kalshi. The league filed an amicus brief on October 8 supporting New Jersey’s petition for review, ESPN reported. The day before, a coalition of 39 state attorneys general, joined by Washington DC, had filed a separate brief on New Jersey’s side.
The case so far
In early September, New Jersey’s attorney general and its Division of Gaming Enforcement asked the Supreme Court to review an April decision by the Third Circuit Court of Appeals. That ruling found New Jersey likely cannot enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts, because Kalshi is regulated at federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Other appeals courts have since gone the other way. The Ninth Circuit held that Nevada can treat Kalshi’s sports contracts as gambling, and on September 25 the Sixth Circuit found that Ohio and Tennessee can do the same. A split between federal appeals courts on a significant legal question is one of the main reasons the Supreme Court agrees to take a case.
At the heart of the dispute is whether a contract that pays out based on a game result is a financial derivative under federal law, or a sports bet that falls under each state’s gambling regime.
What the NFL is arguing
The league’s brief argues that the CFTC is not set up to protect the integrity of sport. According to ESPN, the NFL says the agency has not acted on contracts the league flagged months ago, including markets tied to officiating and markets that one person could easily manipulate. It contrasted the CFTC’s 543 employees nationwide with the hundreds of staff working for state gambling regulators.
The NFL also cited figures showing that on the first Sunday of the 2026 season, $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction-market trading volume was tied to NFL games. ESPN also reported that what the league mainly wants is a fast answer, and that it would not object to federal oversight as long as the rules matched what state regulators already require.
The CFTC responded that it was unfortunate the NFL had not signed an information-sharing agreement with the agency. An industry group, the Coalition for Prediction Markets, said the CFTC is actively policing the markets.
What happens next
On October 30, the Supreme Court extended Kalshi’s deadline to reply to New Jersey’s petition from November 9 to December 7, according to the court’s docket. New Jersey can then file a short response before the petition goes to the justices for a private conference, so a decision on whether to take the case is now unlikely before January 2027. If they do agree to hear it, the case would then be briefed and argued before any ruling on the merits.
Meanwhile, on November 4 the Ninth Circuit refused to rehear its ruling for Nevada, CDC Gaming reported, leaving that decision in place. Kalshi generally has 90 days, until about February 2, 2027, to ask the Supreme Court to take up that case as well. Our report on the Ninth Circuit decision has the details.
What it means for players
Until the courts settle the question, whether you can trade on sports outcomes through a prediction market depends heavily on which state you live in. Some states, including Ohio, are actively ordering platforms to stop, while in others the apps continue to operate under federal oversight.
The practical difference matters. State-licensed sportsbooks must verify age, follow responsible gambling rules and answer to a state regulator if you have a complaint. Prediction markets operate under a different, federal framework that was not built with sports betting in mind. Whatever you use, set limits before you start. Our responsible gambling page explains the tools available.
Sources
- Docket No. 26-299, Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC (Supreme Court of the United States)
- NFL asks U.S. Supreme Court to take up prediction market case (ESPN)
- New Jersey asks Supreme Court to resolve fight over Kalshi's future (NPR (via WAMC))
- US court rules against Kalshi, says states can regulate prediction markets (Al Jazeera)
- U.S. appeals court denies Kalshi's petition for rehearing in Nevada case (CDC Gaming)
Written in our own words from the sources above. Spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it and log it on our corrections page.
About the author
The BettingSeeker News Desk covers regulation, operator news and safer gambling developments in the UK, the US and Canada. Every story is based on primary sources such as regulator announcements, government publications and company filings, or on reporting by established news outlets, and every source is linked at the end of the article.
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