The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday, November 4, refused to reconsider its ruling that Nevada can, for now, apply its gaming laws to sports contracts sold by the prediction market Kalshi. The three judges who decided the case turned down Kalshi’s request for a panel rehearing, and the order noted that no judge on the wider court had asked for a vote on rehearing it en banc, CDC Gaming and InGame reported.
What the court decided in August
On August 28, the panel found that Kalshi had not shown that the federal Commodity Exchange Act likely stops Nevada from treating its sports event contracts as gambling. It upheld the lifting of an injunction that had shielded Kalshi from state enforcement, so Nevada’s ban on those contracts stays in effect. The ruling came at the preliminary injunction stage, so the full case has not been decided.
Kalshi, represented by Paul Clement, had argued in its petition that the decision created a split between federal appeals courts. With rehearing denied, the August opinion now stands as binding precedent in federal courts across the Ninth Circuit, which covers Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. The ruling does not by itself ban prediction markets across those states, and it does not decide any other state’s enforcement case.
The road to the Supreme Court
Kalshi generally has 90 days to file a petition with the US Supreme Court, which puts the deadline at about February 2, 2027 unless it gets an extension. The justices already have a closely related case in front of them. New Jersey asked the court in September to review the Third Circuit’s April ruling in Kalshi’s favor, and the NFL and 39 states plus the District of Columbia have urged the court to take that case. On October 30, the court extended Kalshi’s deadline to respond to New Jersey from November 9 to December 7, according to the docket, which pushes back any decision on whether to hear it.
The appeals courts remain divided. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, while the Ninth Circuit and, on September 25, the Sixth Circuit (for Ohio and Tennessee) sided with the states. A day before the Nevada order, on November 3, the Second Circuit denied Kalshi and Coinbase injunctions pending appeal, so New York and Connecticut can enforce their gambling laws against the companies’ sports contracts while those appeals continue, InGame reported. The order said only that the companies had failed to show an injunction was warranted. Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is taking public comments until November 18 on proposed rules covering its jurisdiction over event contracts.
What it means for players
For now, whether you can trade on game outcomes through a prediction market still depends on your state, and the trend in the courts is running toward states having the final say. Nevada’s ban stays in force, and other western states now have a clear appeals court ruling to point to if they decide to act, as Ohio did in October.
State enforcement so far has targeted the platforms, not their users. But if a platform is ordered out of your state, your access to markets there can change quickly. State-licensed sportsbooks verify your age and location, follow state responsible gambling rules and answer to a regulator if something goes wrong. Our US sports betting legal states map shows where licensed mobile betting is available.
Sources
- Docket No. 26-299, Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC (Supreme Court of the United States)
- Ninth Circuit Denies Kalshi Rehearing Request (InGame)
- Second Circuit Denies Kalshi Injunction After Judges Doubt Sports Contracts Are Swaps (InGame)
- U.S. appeals court denies Kalshi's petition for rehearing in Nevada case (CDC Gaming)
Written in our own words from the sources above. Spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it and log it on our corrections page.
About the author
The BettingSeeker News Desk covers regulation, operator news and safer gambling developments in the UK, the US and Canada. Every story is based on primary sources such as regulator announcements, government publications and company filings, or on reporting by established news outlets, and every source is linked at the end of the article.
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